Dr Peter Gleick – Peak Water – KCL Geography

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Dr Peter Gleick – Peak Water – KCL Geography

I’m going to talk tonight about I’m going to talk about 35 minutes a nap and then I will have time for some questions I’m going to talk about Pete water i’m going to talk about water and conflict the international security talk a little bit of my climate change and water what we call the revolutionary war on my side of the Atlantic and it will bring Bieber to be orbit 1776 I think it works I’m going to talk about communications or outward issues I’m not going to talk about privatization globalization propagation per se i’m not going to talk about where equity i’m not going to talk about bottle of water like a couple years ago and i have to say that the game is kind enough to eat or requested water and i’ll follow order i’m not going to talk to say about some pants so much of an optimization implicit work that I’ve gotten out the soft cap so let me start with this idea people are most of you putting her that peak oil and I’ll what it means but I’m going to talk about Pete water coloring mine mean I’m talking up and I wrote a paper that came out a couple years ago for seeds of in a competitive sciences about keyboard which we discuss the concept and its application and I’m going to talk about it in the context of three curves the first is the classic exponential curve that all of you know are they all sorts of things in the physical world economic world environmental world we see exponential curves and a lot of different places this is the exponential curve population from the year 1000 to the year 2000 showing the growth of population from very small level to the current seven billion eggs can go to eight and nine and i’m not sure where it’s going to end up all the city of the top it’s starting to move away from expect or over but that’s a clashing exponential curve normal the population may have a concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and am from year one thousand of the year 2000 showing the exponential growth and co2 concentrations and injured greenhouse gas concentrations atmosphere this is in many ways the climate problem an exponential curve as well I’m going to talk about this curve that is the exponential growth curve followed by a peak followed by a leveling off and a decline in something and we see this in the natural world as well or economic world sometimes and the classic definition of peak oil refers to this curve 1970 challenges me Hubbard projecting that it would be something called pee hole and see a peak in the production of oil in the United States in fact peak oil was around nineteen seventy the United States we produce less oil now begin in 1970s and its continued to decline there’s some question that when how the world will beat your production p for oil but i think that’s coming as well but we also see in natural phenomenon deviousness this is a curve of atlantic cod capture from 1952 double year 2000 2000 2010 showing a peaking the capture atlantic economy to collapse and cog production by the parties of its that’s an ecosystem in the event and a decrease in the productivity of the cod fishery so we see it in natural resources be seeing not new resources receiving a lot of different kinds of courage and i’ll come back to the water the third curve is since lasting logistics curve will level of something in exponential growth of the month amend the sustaining of something we see this kind of kerbin lots of dynamics as well we see the technology penetrate the technology so something that we all want but they know be wanting is invent the telephone in the air g faculty new year 1900 up to the year 2000 the telephones infinity it’s a wonderful technology everybody gets one and that when everybody has one the numbers of telephones how do you market levels off

you see this four VCRs you see it for CDs you see it for all sorts of paper for PCs for the personal computer to see if nothing off once the market penetration rates reach you see a person up it’s in fact this is all terminal phones perhaps it might grow with population but the number of land lines they start to drop it may have a peak of their decline when it’s replaced by cell phones cell phones gay that you replaced by smart phones you can see an exponential increase 10-11 them off but everybody has a smartphone we see this curve pretty regularly but we also see it all sorts of other things this is a curve that shows globally the cumulative damn capacity stored aboard behind Dan’s worldwide from about 1850 2000-2010 showing an exponential increase in the storage of water my big dances started a little big quad and I’ll show this card again later and I talked followed by delivering off why I’ll come back tonight now in the water contents before I talk explicitly about people water their characteristics of hardening or interest we tend to think about water is a renewable resource you all first remember from your pre university years about hydrologic cycle evaporation the formation of Clarence condensation precipitation effect evaporation that’s the hydrologic cycle and it’s renewable system water is a renewable resource it’s in many ways blank so learning a classic renewable resource but let me define to charge renewal and honorable just basic background non-renewable resources are considered stock but they’re limited by the amount of supplements there and figure out the oil for me oil is a non-renewable resource in a short term it’s created by the decay of Education over many thousands of years be honest and from a human perspective or extraction world is not Google you take it out from a stock the amount of oil we can get is limited by the stop this day that’s sort of a classic definition of non-renewable resources stop limit you can take out more that’s there a renewable resource in contrast is slowly its renewable the flow is ongoing infant and think about the solar energy as the classic renewable resource the amount of energy of the Sun produces expects and the amount of humans can capture is limited by a mob that falls on the surface of the earth now so we can build big satellites and expand the area to capture solar energy but it’s limited by the flow that being captured the amount that we use has no effect whatsoever on what the Sun produces are it’s not stuck with it we’re not using it up that’s a that’s a renewable resource its flow than principles to stop as opposed to stop them or an energy actually exhibit characteristics of both there are renewable energy sources solar energy sources removal of oil interests which is not really water is mostly a renewable resource but water also has some non renewable characteristics and remember that I’ll come back to that two of my discussion of people so back to these curves I’m going to find three kinds of Pete water Pete renewable working non renewable water we people a peak renewable water is sort of this curve when one of those are the normal resource and humans started tapping we increase our demand on the renewable resource and then once we’re capturing the entire flow of some renewable resource we should keep taking all what we can’t take anymore the exponential curve has to level off and there’s variability in renewable if you think about this in terms of a river there’s a certain ethnic average flow of the river and once we take it all we might be able to continue to take our average okay anymore now there are right here is that our prior so the total number need to take a vary from

year to year but that’s peep renewable water that’s a clear definition of the limits of even renewable resource the total renewable supply now that is the question how much should we actually take and the whole debatable Otherworld about ecological value is partly the debating about having reached keep renewal limits on governor Ritter for beginning to realize well maybe for ecological reasons we don’t want to take the whole thing we want to leave clothes in the river but that’s a different piece of this water today so the question is how much should we actually use and in fact I like to argue that in many parts of the world were already approaching peep renewable minutes on our natural flows this is a graph flow of the Colorado group in the southwestern part of the United States from 90 l five to two thousand six thousand seven the y axis is million cubic meters for a year and this shows a number of things the Maverick the region the color under which the biggest river in the southwestern part of the United States it’s shared by seven states horizon amounts of the Rocky Mountains a snap and drops off and it ends up in Mexico she’s an international group shared by the us-mexico we have treaty that allocates parts of the Colorado the US and Mexico this is a measurement of flow at the mouth of the Colorado at the end of the river of the Delta let’s call a subject international work and it shows a number of frames first of all shows declining flows at the deli it also shows up so now this is the natural variability in the early part of the 20th century there were not that many human demands hall or there was better little infrastructure like many groups part of nineteen ninety times so we have five years we have dry years there was a lot of slowly be together as the 20th century progressed we started urinating land in the western United States the cities of the rest started to crow we started with cold water for a canucks and goofin out of the basin we built a big dams and the flow started to drop some of the biggest stands in the United States Robin called Robert the color also serve the closer to the grand canyon and by the early 1960s by the big dams were completed and the baby our nation systems were put in place in the cities were taking the water flows into Delta reaches zero basically we took the entire renewable flood we reach peak water on colorado river now occasionally in real nine years at 1983 was a really really right here when the rest are full we can score any more water some flow stories develop so that’s an add more value and that’s Peter Google water water on the Colorado we might like pour water into the Colorado but we have this is another example of Pete water know what you’re thinking this is that reservoir curve that I’ve described its global risk for capacity from 1900 to that 2010 the y-axis is cubic kilometers of storage total volume of water stored behind the big dams and it shows you know 1900 we had very few big dance we started to build dams in 1950s and 1960s and 70s for a period of enormous construction we built a view reader dance in the United States and the Soviet Union and other parts of the world and then it started to level off and it took a lot for a variety of reasons we reach to some degree eight-hour compete reservoir storage now it will still build more big games a few big dance i think the sum of this volume a off a little bit but it’s not going to resume it growth in my opinion for a whole series of reasons one is we build on almost all the good dam sites outside students that’s abstract Academy time this was a period we didn’t care about or we didn’t understand the ecological consequences of a dam construction and we do more today understand those implications and so from an ecological point it’s increasingly controversial to build big hands now so there are ecological constraints their economic constraints this was a period of time with governments especially in the United

States and the Soviet Union heavily subsidized in the federal level big dam construction because they were promoting their nation and immediate as well they were trying to expand food production and we’re standing hydro cattle production and governments paid for a lot of that construction and government finances and budgets are different than the 21st century than they were in the 20th century almost anywhere and it’s harder to find financing of these products if you look at the truly cannot when we didn’t care about cost benefits we didn’t understand cost factors this car was a lot easier and funding there’s little reasons as well there are community implications of building big dance communities get flooded communities downstream lose water access when order is restored storm on games and taken out figure additionally different Mason so their economic concerns there a little constraints their environmental constraints and there are fiscal constraints all which are involved this curve this is an herb total war with holes in the United States and argues another example of peak water this is an old water controls for everything for irrigation for power plant cooling for residential and industrial commercial uses all over 1250 United States from 1900 2000 + 5 y axis is cubic kilometers per year in withdrawals and it shows a couple of things first it shows exponential demands water over the early part of the 20th century and the economy grew ms populations grew this is sort of a classic assumption in the 20th century for water pliers and warm and climbs a tree I’m strength psychologist and partly is trying to assume that its population drilling be calm because demand for water started on lock step and that is true for what but in the late 70s early 80s the United States reach peak water we use less water in the United States today for everything then we use 30 years ago per capita basis means 11ins per person these populations so protective orders orderings / the population so happy one uses talked even more than this crop from people why a lot of reasons I actually think this is a dissertation that has been done and you’re trying to push this on domestication part of it is physical we might want more water out of the Colorado River Ridge asking us what we can add there’s a physical constraint part of this economic will begin applies or realistic part of this technology we’re using more efficient approaches or producing the goods and services that we want we’re growing more food with less one our toilets and mushrooms are more efficient than they used to be work meeting our demands with less water all of those player that it was structure of our economies change partly be exported this is something professor now the understanding of everyone’s are what our production policies to other places where more water intensive industries are now producing somewhere else and we’re importing water to be goods and services and we consume all of those things are implicit I believe in this skirt now will this term go back up in the future made but there are physical economic environment strength to summer create one can argue between or the other side of this is that if you continue this curve exponentially hall with in parallel with the economy population we would have profound double this have to water to be the master and when I’m fired another 850 cubic locks water drinker to be honest I’d know where we would have been that one the United States we’re not magic 50 cubic kilometers of water weight for environmental and social reasons we could tap some ass sex it’s a good thing so that’s people hold water p governor water follows this group that is exponential growth by a peak followed by

this line and i said earlier that sudden water sources of global summer not renewable there are certain groundwater aquifers in particular that are classic non-renewable resources just like oil they should be thought about if you thought of ish stocks not flows when you consume around one facet of nature naturally returns it it’s an optimal resource and we see non-renewable groundwater fossil groundwater in the Central Valley of California law for great plains of the United States in Lydia north china plates in parts of India a substantial amount of ground or that’s used worldwide is non-renewable ground it’s recharged make you charged after the oil is created on geologic times but in some place is not much think about videos vast resource Lily but it’s not beer each other by natural precipitation which is the source of batteries recharged Tim and that sense UCP you see an increase in round where you’ll see p ultimately and then you see a decline as economic costs of pumping grow you’ll overcome adrenaline for the clothes drop it becomes more expensive to pump and so there’s an economic component to this and that’s a non-renewable xpcom and here’s an example this is the pub around work on a background and it shows over time increase in total pumping followed by a default by the clients across becoming exceed the value before and we see a hill screws well this is the Oval aquifer that mission showing enormous crops in the groundwater red-colored is big drops more than 120 for you declines in rather than other parts of the event reducing graveler meters multiple years cancer years of a year very rapid climb around and in parts of this region is the worrying this is South Dakota Nebraska Colorado Kansas of Walmart Mexico Texas this is really the great will call great plains of California zone is where now feel a trance vol 2 field across from he beat soybeans core and many parts of this region because of these declines and proud of our boats partners abroad production factory fanatic culture is they can’t afford pumpkin costs their public needs to find this is to the extent that i was able to fund it promise better data this is co workers in england and wales in liters per year for nineteen ninety 2000-2008 bisector residential electricity and gas production bank dustrial showing a decline in water controls industry primarily looks like change is this an example of a water peak not in the wardrobe has that better made the third concept is pete ecological the y axis on the run here is total economic and ecological value of water as a function of the amount of water vapor so increasing appropriation award by humans and total value that water tools and I would play to the argue that falls this kind of referred rare and very low levels of global very low levels of appropriation the family then we get out of that Warner Bros but perhaps exponential we produce more food we make more semiconductors there’s an increasing economic value to that water use but at a certain point we reach when I would argue is P geological water by which I mean the next unit of water that we appropriate causes more ecological heart that it produces economic power and so the value with total down the addition of economic value and Peter logical that we starts to actually decline these ecological costs exceed the part that I’m going to be the first to acknowledge that we’re really bad at measuring you can that measuring ecological mountain and a lot of good work is being done here is

one people on the level you water company around it’s a very exciting period in a water world today but there is an ecological and age or will our knees it’s not zero and so you might not be able to say exactly when a system reaches a peak ecological war but I would argue that some places we’re past that point already and I would point to for example the LLC where or what roles for Nazi in Central Asia at me I’m guarding the seal rocky river that caused the diminishing volume and increasing salinity in the umbrella see now water was taken out to grow cotton he was Pakistan Kazakhstan thank you to sound all 24 species of fish that were only endemic to the RLC are now extinct this may be a subjective gotta be done our part but I would argue than that okay cause it’s greater than the economic value de cotton reproduce that we are also so again that’s until we’re really good at putting a dollar value on ecological value it’s to some degree subjective point but the concept of people are orders increasingly important one the way you think about water management the decisions we make that building to dance or tapping around or what we choose to grow in different regions and that’s the concept okay so let me talk about security and conflict commies first of all definitions of security bear ever-expanding I understand it was a interesting major to be stolen values securitizing environmental goods and services that’s to some degree in academic to me I’ve been involved in it for a long time there are a lot of different definitions of security from the classic radar polity in the 1960s and 70s and 80s that is super power politics and cold war to the field of apartment the security one needs in the water filled out human security and one of these definitions of security chamber it’s interesting because up the motors in the 1980s it was some concern that if you argue that there is such a thing as environmental security you’re diminishing the considered a real debate about alcohol together internationally and I had to find out at the time yet super power politics was itself but then security was subsequently World War Ted developed and cold war it was a different definition before Baltimore so definitions very good but I would argue with the real world there’s a long history of conflict over one one of the things we do at the city’s it is when we obtain something called a war conflict chronology if you’re just in history you’re interested the security issue Google our conflicts ecology or going world water.org and there is a surgical database hundreds of examples of conflicts on the water or the use of waters effect or water systems is a targeted culinary stars in part of going back 5,000 years it’s actually quite interesting neighbors and it takes me too far sometimes we find a little water I want your water because a resource sometimes water is used as a weapon sometimes it’s hard sometimes it’s a development dispute it’s an issue of conflict over equity and access pca greasing examples of water and conflict the area of terrorism and so after this piece but I would argue show you why I think this but this is a one-way disputes are growing not shrinking including over the issue of what I would describe speak what typically peak renewable and not not people per se but I think that’s a possibility and I think more factors in general are going to have both increasingly direct attacks on the issues of security and confidently concerns so this is actually screech up for our conference chronology it’s an interactive google map you can actually click on any of these conflicts you can sort by region conflict sort of my time period if you click on a particular entry get access to the specific

citations expectations are five for information that each of those conference it’s a lot of fun and we’re just about we haven’t yet but we’re just about of the next month or so updated for 20 of em well be updated every two years the last two years this is a graph that shows total reporting reporting wonderful any confidence in the number for nineteen thirty one thousand twelve this includes the 2020 and this map is why they are you can receive depreciable related confidence now that’s how hypothesis not a fact the back has received an increase in the number of reporting columns the hypothesis is that a non-profit civil order is growing but the reality is were also a lot better reporting that used to be today when there’s a even a small regional dispute when there’s violence over water have another thing the chronology is wild mountains it’s reported immediately enter i get a twitter i get it on twitter in a couple of minutes or it’s on a news feed the website says so we’re reporting whenever there’s a real increase in the number I’m not sure I believe there is but acknowledge the challenge that’s an age but it’s more than us if you split it by nation to nation conflicts and sub-national conflicts you see interesting trend and that is a growing increase in some national conference that’s supposed to national companies over there both loyal associate red line is sub-national conflicts blue- state estate problems or war costs and international order and nations are appalled this by the way for world war two lots of water conflicts in world war two attacks on dams the use of war Lisa’s to stop what are from moving across over to the territory so in the conflict photography I said it goes back five years instead there’s one entry per 1776 one of my hobbies a little bit in the Sun is I how many know what words coffee beans yeah such remotely similar but it means the collection of stock and bond certificates old stock and observations that’s pretty obscure way it turns out that when companies and sees raise money for water infrastructure the poor poor training for energy building schools in western world we sold stocks or bonds but my bonds we sold stocks in terms of product company in a 70 others and eighteen hundreds and 99 mage certificates often beautiful examples of artistic circles with with engravings and old calligraphy and so I I happen to like old stock advisor the water and beautiful pictures it’s been all time someday I recollection about history dr. monster a lot of good reviews for the city of one for the warden sees the seventeen eighteen hundreds of the water infrastructure moment though not bail that’s the summons in 1776 New York City was having trouble with his water supply they had outgrown the wells and local ponds contaminated with you waste the body muscles are sufficient and New York’s he was trying to raise money to build a new water system of some kind and a steam pump had just been invented and in new york city issued notice is it Schilling

stock dollars little bonds notes to people to pay for the building of a big new modern steam pump to pump water from a new clean well this is actually sideways but you can see into basically scandal here’s the weather this piston goes up and down there’s the whale those on the man the pumps water so this is this is advanced water in 1776 this is actually an example of this certain guy on this whether this was the first water certificate issued for infrastructure in America they started to get all the system and then the revolution that I call the Revolutionary War recall Baltimore defense any great the British occupied New York in 1776 and the city was burned to the ground I’m not going to get into all people there’s some dispute about that whether it is the British Eurosport Washington’s troops for treating but the water pump burn to the ground and new your seahorses I was set back for another 30 or 40 years but that’s that’s an example water conflict there bye for now okay some new concerns at the intersection of water and energy war or not much about that and security first of all what Arnie and I develop in the old days it was country na vs country to me I want your water inner inner border disputes that kind of thing but increasingly we see concerns at the intersection of water leaking out of the usual poverty for water location and you sure waterbeds increasingly bc sub-national stick to state the invasion but Karnataka to talk about comedian for example disputes and fetus wavers local schools pastoralists force farmers in effort are increasingly problems that we see in the days increasing water acts of terror early next to terrorism and I would already connected in the long-term indirect impacts of climate change and let me talk a little bit about climate change in war we’re changing recliner there’s little dispute about that in scientific this is a graph that shows temperature anomalies as differences from a long-term average going back almost 2,000 years this is a reconstruction done both here in the United States from Daniel climatic dinner and then actual measurements this measurements of the Sun instrumental record in the last 150 years or so showing the very significant changes in temperature over the past two thousand this is the famous pop and I remember the climate change is not just a temperature the onion it was global warming there’s been a change in the language of this discussion of a global warming climate climate change these are the realization that it’s not just about temperature and in particular it’s about a water it’s thought I geologic cycle and I talked about already the hydrologic cycle is for watering cycle and it’s the climate cycle as well and as you change the climate we’re going to change and are already changing the hydrologic cycle this is a photograph from Mississippi River flooding year 2000 this is what we hold this is what I’d always call the one in a 500 year flood event that is the severity of store one would expect on mississippi river once every 15 20 years I’m unfortunately in 1993 there was another seven years before there was another one fire or flood event on the Mississippi River now from the statistical oddity that’s okay we can have 21 a 500 year flood base camp your period and not have another one for a thousand years and the statistics would be okay but it makes people nervous and in fact we’re seeing an increased frequency of extreme events extreme

hydrologic events bugs and rats in many parts of the world that are increasingly scientifically being attributed in part to climb fascinating the research and logging community around understanding the connection between climate change and the statistics and the physics of extreme events is a very exciting field right now it’s also not just a scientific question it’s a question communications politics this is a photograph can really see if it’s a photograph from will be here now halting superstorm sandy and in the New York City region last year it was by hurricane standards not that big a hurry in fact by the time of landfall it wasn’t liberal you’re hurting my speed of the grammys but it was incredibly devastating storm and the sizes should recommend the physical size the size of the storm was enormous and in coinciding with high time and in coincided with very intense rainfall and in coincided with the fact that cee-lo on the eastern seaboard of the United States is six to nine inches fiber today and was a hundred years ago because of sea level rise in part because of climate change the carnage change cause superstorm sandy no that’s the wrong communications definition no one is arguing the climbing is that we understand it well enough the climate change is causing extreme events is it influencing extreme events yes and in fact the argument increasingly in the communications area now is that all weather ex are increasingly influenced by the fact that temperatures are higher sea level is higher there for water vapor man is here because of human-induced climate change and this was the color of his be nice we gather superstorm sandy because it stimulated but to me unnaturally in the united states and international debate to some degree then we have to stop ignoring the bowl timing field it’s interesting change from 10 or 20 years ago this is a satellite photo superstorm sandy just ready to hear this is New Jersey right here this is water this has been happened right here storm has gone around like this this was a massive storm it wasn’t necessarily hurting those size and get as you know 50 billion 60 billion dollars on massive massive and the impact on extreme that’s part of generation hasn’t gone unnoticed by people whose interests are affected Munich raised among the world’s largest insurance agency may be packaged insurance systems needless to say sures are very sensitive to storms and extreme laments because they each work against them the Internet’s most flooding insurance the insurance products that sort and even graze issued a series of reports about climate change one recently sent both the only plausible explanation for the rise and globally catastrophes is climate and this is the grass fischoeder basically can’t read it but this is the number of mental chess piece of North America 1982 2011 it’s just a number of events it’s not the value damages for the red the kind of the red one is geophysical dances basically earthquakes the green is meteorological rings storms hurricanes the blue is biological agents that’s flooding and some rivers and the redescribe elements may also map your electrodes cotton but they see this trend and they start work because they set insurance rates based on past history and if climate is not static but dynamic climate change for you then after we think they’re becoming honest so this is a summary at all extreme weather events are now subject to human

influence remoting the dice localism we’re loading the probability dicing higher numbers on me so what is people artery it doesn’t mean were to run out of overall importers most favorable resource it does be we’re going to run up against renewal flow constraints that are combination natural and economic and political and ecological constraints when water is elemental we’re going to run to stop constraints and that’s the peak non removable water piece of this puzzle and we’re increasingly getting more exceeding peak electric lines so the colorado river by shaggy brown reaches soup doesn’t reduce deltic anymore there was it was a fishing community in the mouth of the delicate depended on a very merry fisher order that flow of fresh or salt or a mountain to tell the Yellow River Delta doesn’t we just found and mcdonald delta often cry so we’re reaching peak ecological constraints and there are limitations are worse problems let me close with some comment about research needs and priorities this could be a really long list company comprehensive winter reaching people are constraints can we quantify non-renewal limits beyond measure bracket water used to recharge everyone can be quantified theological limits and requirements so on a loan on a river how much flow on the result would be restored restoring and we has that wondering confidence which of the users current using on Colorado’s you give up water what are the implications of people’s physical agent economic political in what makes is what’s the role of climb if climate is non-stationary and it’s going to change clothes and rivet or extreme events how do you factor that into our water management decisions and finally can be evaluated and from my perspective more importantly can we reduce the risks of or security problems can we reduce the risks of conflict over water we’re pretty good at the international level national Treas one of the reasons why we are to receive fewer and fewer are based a smaller proportion a conference over wireless international his country’s Teddy negotiate or water we have diplomatic tools we don’t necessarily have the tools that is so National up to deal with those kinds of problems the kinds of problems we’re seeing and in that sense the biscuit conference or water may also be beavers I think in the long run there are solutions for problems I think we can rethink supply of water can we think demand for I think we can make smart economics and old birds we can rethink technology there are technological solutions tour or challenges while I’m telling the soft petal water that I wants to write it up with are not going to talk about because this is a combination all of those things there’s no Super Bowl to solve our problems but getting us the right combination in the right place at the right time for meetings and salt challenge thank you you